I've gotten a couple e-mails informing me that my percentages do not add up to 100. The reason for that is because I view school delays and cancellations as separate entities.
When I create my percentages, I put the two hour delay against a full day of school, and the cancellation of school against a full day as well.
While this gives me some wiggle room when it comes to predictions, it also allows for a more realistic prediction (since there is no way of actually knowing what the school system will decide ahead of time).
My forecasts are a compilation of multiple forecasts for this region (weather.com, accuweather, nbc4, fox5, wunderground, Foots Forecast, cbs9, abc7, etc.) I make my own forecast based on how accurate each of them have been in the past. I also look to see which of the forecasts have been most recently updated.
After the winter weather has started, I ask for road reports from various parts of the county (Gaithersburg, Damascus, Poolesville, Bethesda, Silver Spring, Rockville, etc.). Based on what I have seen, and what is reported to me, I make my predictions.
I am a teacher in Montgomery County, and am a graduate of Montgomery County Public Schools.
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