First Day Off Contest

When will MCPS be closed for the first time this school year due to winter weather?

This is your chance to win a $20 Chipotle Gift Card just by guessing the first day MCPS will be closed this school year due to winter weather!

Here's how it works:

You must follow the blog (To follow the blog...click on 'Join This Site' right underneath where it says Followers, and follow the directions).

After you become a follower of the blog, you must comment with the date you think will be our first day off this school year due to winter weather...2-Hour Delays do not count for this contest (The first person to comment with the date is the person who gets that date. Two people cannot have the same date, and if the same date is chosen twice, the person that commented first will be awarded the day).

In your comment you must have your full first and last name and your school or workplace.

Please leave comments under this post if they are relating to the contest (Any days picked under any other post will not be eligible for the contest, so make sure you comment here if you want to join the contest).

Good luck!

Winter Weather Advisory 12/7: 4PM Update!

Though temperatures will drop below freezing for a couple hours in the early morning, I don't think we will have enough accumulation to cause any issues in the morning commute.


The Winter Weather Advisory is still in effect, but from what i've been seeing in the latest models, it doesn't look like we will get much more than an inch in Montgomery County.


Prediction as of 4PM: 1 Pencil


Explanation of Rating Scale:
5 Pencils: It's almost certainly safe to stay up late, because there will probably be no school tomorrow.

4 Pencils: Decent chance you'll be out of school tomorrow, but fairly certain there will at least be a delay.

3 Pencils: Small chance you'll have the whole day off, but a delay is very possible.

2 Pencils: Slight chance of a delay, but I would expect a full day of school.

1 Pencil: Really good chance you will be in school on time.

Winter Weather Advisory 12/7

Let's start off by taking a moment to remember those who lost their lives 70 years ago in Pearl Harbor.

Everyone better go to the grocery store to buy toilet paper, eggs, bread, milk, and water, because we have a HUGE one coming!

Just kidding...

MoCoSnow/ MoCoWinter/ MoCoWeather is based out of the Kentlands, in North Potomac, and in that area we are expected to have about 1-3 inches of snow. Fortunately, the same totals are expected across the county (from Damascus to Silver Spring). Our lows will be around 30 degrees, which is a great thing, because that is below freezing and can make for an interesting morning commute.

We are expected to hit the freezing mark at about 5am, and should stay there until about 8/9am. That's almost perfect for precipitation that is expected to turn to snow overnight.

Prediction as of 8:30am: 2 Pencils

Below is an explanation of the rating system:
5 Pencils: It's almost certainly safe to stay up late, because there will probably be no school tomorrow.
4 Pencils: Decent chance you'll be out of school tomorrow, but fairly certain there will at least be a delay.
3 Pencils: Small chance you'll have the whole day off, but a delay is very possible.
2 Pencils: Slight chance of a delay, but I would expect a full day of school.
1 Pencil: Really good chance you will be in school on time.

Why Weren't Schools Closed Today?

If you look at a list of all the school closings, you'll see that every surrounding county has cancelled school, except for us.

A most of you have seen by now, Montgomery County will do whatever it can to get a couple hours of school in. A lot of you have yet to be plowed and it's nearly time to head out to school.

The problem is this...We were expected to get 4-8 inches of snow, but totals in Montgomery County are at about half an inch-2.5 inches. Official totals from Montgomery Village and Poolesville are both at 2 inches or below, so we simply didn't get enough snow to warrant a day off of school.

That is why the rating remained at 4 Pencils, and never moved up to 5.

Tuesday, Feb 22, 2011

There will be a two hour delay today.

Presidents Day 2011/New rating system 6:30pm UPDATE!

After going over the most recent forecasts, I came across the latest snow total projection from Foot's Forecast.

Just about all of the county is in the 4-8inch range, which means the potential of this storm is much greater than initially anticipated.

None of the weather outlets are saying this storm will be rain, so expect snow, and expect a decent amount of it.

The rain is expected to turn to snow tonight, and stay until about 9am tomorrow morning. Perfect timing.

Rating: 4 Pencils

New Ratings System

I used to go with percentages (2 Hour Delay and Schools Closed as two different entities, with two different percentages not adding up to 100). That got a little confusing to some, and people kept asking about it, so I will change the way it's done.

5 Pencils: It's almost certainly safe to stay up late, because there will probably be no school tomorrow.
4 Pencils: Decent chance you'll be out of school tomorrow, but fairly certain there will at least be a delay.
3 Pencils: Small chance you'll have the whole day off, but a delay is very possible.
2 Pencils: Slight chance of a delay, but I would expect a full day of school.
1 Pencil: Really good chance you will be in school on time.

Feb 17th/18th

Today we will be in the mid to high 60's. Tomorrow we will most likely be in the 70's. No winter weather in sight, but I will take this kind of weather as well.

No Storms

Last night, light rain came through the area, as it was not cold enough for snow. The coastal storm that was expected to hit tomorrow night into Thursday will be well to the south of us and will miss us completely.

It looks like we were unlucky with this weeks round of storms...

Highs next week will be in the mid to high 50's for most of the week...so unless things change, we're in for a big warm-up.

Monday Night Storm 2/7/11 Sunday Update

The clipper system coming through looks like it will not have much of an effect in our area. The highs on Monday should be around 50 degrees, and any snow that does make it through would fall as a wet snow in the late Monday/early Tuesday hours.

Most weather outlets were reporting a 50% chance of us getting snow from the coastal storm that will be here on Thursday. I am now seeing 55%, which is a sign that they feel the snow is more likely to hit us than not.

We wil keep a very close eye on the potentially huge coastal storm coming on Thursday.

2 Storms Coming Next Week

I have some good news for everyone...

Besides the potential wintry mix that is coming late tonight into tomorrow (it will most likely be all rain), we have two storms that are expected to come through next week. The first storm, the weaker of the two, is a clipper that could bring up to 3 inches at best late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Clippers usually fall apart when going over the mountains and usually lead to a dusting for us, but you never know...

The second storm is expected to arrive on Thursday. This one is going to be a coastal storm, and coastal storms have the potential to bring snow that is measured in feet rather than inches. Unfortunately, they also have the potential to be all rain, so we will have to keep an eye on this one for late next week.

There will be plenty of updates on these upcoming storms.

Upcoming Winter Storms

Initially, we were in line for another winter storm this Saturday night. Lucky for us, the temperatures will be in the 40's and it will be yet another rainstorm. I'm not sure about you, but I find winter storms useless on the weekends.

If things change and temperatures drop, we could still see a wintry mix this Saturday night I don't think it will have much of an effect on Mondays commute though.

The next chance we have for some wintry precipitation is this coming Tuesday. I see a possible mix coming to our area, which is good, because that usually closes MCPS. It's far too early to tell the path of that storm, but it is definitely something I am keeping an eye on.

Stay tuned!

Wednesday 2/2 (10:30pm UPDATE)

Temperatures are currently at 32 degrees in Gaithersburg, Germantown, and Damascus. There is sleet/freezing rain currently falling in some parts of these areas as well. There are also more power outages throughout the county.

If temperatures can drop a degree or two, and stay there until about 4/5am this morning, we still have a shot at a delay.

Every media outlet is reporting that we will not be remaining at 32 degrees, and are predicting us to be at around 34 overnight, but the fact that we are at freezing temperatures right now gives us a glimmer of hope.


The Freezing Rain Advisory remains in effect until 7:00am tomorrow morning, so we have a shot.


Highs tomorrow are expected to reach near 50 degrees, so I don't see a way for schools to be closed, but the delay percentage has gone up slightly.


Stay tuned... (Check us out at 5am tomorrow to see if there will be a delay)

Two Hour Delay: 40%
Schools Closed: 5%

2 Hour Delay 2/1

Schools will be delayed for 2 hours on Tuesday, February 1st.

Winter Weather Advisory (9:00pm UPDATE)

There is now a winter weather advisory in effect for Montgomery county for the overnight hours tonight. Snow is expected to give way to sleet and freezing rain, but not a lot of accumulation is expected.

Though the first part of the storm may cause some issues in the northern part of our county, I don't think there will be enough to warrant a delay or school closing. The best case scenario would be for the ice to reach that 1/10th of an inch, and for the freezing rain to continue throughout the morning and into the afternoon. That could possibly lead to the entire day off Tuesday, and a definite delay Wednesday.

Tomorrow will be the bigger issue. There is currently a Winter Storm Watch in effect, and that may turn into a warning by tomorrow. Up to a quarter inch of ice can be expected, and that will definitely cause some problems. Unfortunately, it will all turn into rain by late morning.

Tuesday...
2 Hour Delay: 40%
Schools closed: 20%

Wednesday:
2 Hour delay: 75%
Schools closed: 35%

Please scroll down to see why percentages do not add up to 100.

Tuesday/Wednesday Storm 2/1, 2/2

It looks like the first round of the storm, starting very early Tuesday morning, will be the lightest part. It's expected to come in as snow/sleet, and cause some problems for the morning commute. I can see this bringing us a two hour delay.

The heavier part of the storm, which will be coming very early Wednesday morning, will most likely be mainly rain. It may start as some frozen precipitation, and may cause a 2 hour delay, but the changeover to rain will come by around 8/9am (if not rain the entire time). Highs on Wednesday are expected to reach the mid 40's.

There is still a chance that some of the cold air may get locked in, but as of now this does not look like it will be the kind of storm we had last week.

February Storm

Everyone is keeping an eye on a storm that will be climbing up the coast sometime between Tuesday night and Thursday morning. Right now it looks like it will probably be a mixed bag of weather, with the heaviest parts of the storm coming during the day on Wednesday.

Temperatures on Wednesday may reach the upper 30's, which could bring rain into the mix. We will have to keep an eye on this one, because it's still early and there are a lot of different scenarios that can occur.

Best case scenario (when it comes to those who want MCPS to close) would be for a wintry mix to start early Wednesday morning, and go through the day, giving us another couple days off. Worst case scenario would be a storm that consists mainly of a cold rain.

Stay tuned, as we are keeping a very close eye on this one.

Another Big Storm?

Things seem to be shaping up for another big coastal storm, similar to the one we had this past Wednesday. It's still very early on, and the path of this storm could determine whether rain or snow will fall, but this one looks very similar to the storm that just gave us three days off.

High temperatures will only be in the mid to high 30's leading up to this storm, so it's very possible that this storm will be more of a wintry storm, rather than rain.

I do have to warn you, early models show this one being a little further off the coast, which means there's a better chance it barely touches us.

Estimated Time of Arrival: Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

It is still very early, so stay tuned.

SCHOOLS CLOSED Friday 1/28/2011

Schools will be closed tomorrow, Friday, January 28th.

Prediction for Friday 1/28/2011 5:30pm UPDATE

Over 100,000 homes are still without power. Multiple traffic lights remain dark. Plenty of sidewalks still covered in almost a foot of snow. Some school parking lots have yet to be touched. Fairfax county has already cancelled school for tomorrow, and they are the county most similar to ours.

What does this mean? Nothing is for sure, but I think this means we will have a 5 day weekend. I just don't see a way that everything can be taken care of, and since it's Friday, i have a feeling the school system will cancel school for the day.

There is a possibility that many of these issues will be resolved, and if that happens, a two hour delay will be the likely result.

The roads are in good shape, so that may be the only reason school may only be delayed, but i have a good feeling that this little vacation will continue.

Snow totals in the county range from 5-12+ inches. During the storm, most weather outlets dropped their totals to 3-6, or 4-8, but we here at MoCo Winter Weather stuck to our guns and kept it at 6-10.

Two Hour Delay: 75%
Schools Closed: 80%
(please scroll down to the entry that gives an explanation of the percentages, as they are not supposed to add up to 100)

Schools Closed Thursday, 1/27/2011

MCPS has just announced that schools will be closed tomorrow. I predicted two days off this past Saturday :)

Stay tuned for my prediction on Friday!

Explanation of Percentage System

I've gotten a couple e-mails informing me that my percentages do not add up to 100. The reason for that is because I view school delays and cancellations as separate entities.

When I create my percentages, I put the two hour delay against a full day of school, and the cancellation of school against a full day as well.

While this gives me some wiggle room when it comes to predictions, it also allows for a more realistic prediction (since there is no way of actually knowing what the school system will decide ahead of time).

My forecasts are a compilation of multiple forecasts for this region (weather.com, accuweather, nbc4, fox5, wunderground, Foots Forecast, cbs9, abc7, etc.) I make my own forecast based on how accurate each of them have been in the past. I also look to see which of the forecasts have been most recently updated.

After the winter weather has started, I ask for road reports from various parts of the county (Gaithersburg, Damascus, Poolesville, Bethesda, Silver Spring, Rockville, etc.). Based on what I have seen, and what is reported to me, I make my predictions.

I am a teacher in Montgomery County, and am a graduate of Montgomery County Public Schools.

Final Prediction Before the Storm Hits (Wednesday, 1/26, 3:30pm)

We are about 30 minutes to an hour away from the biggest part of the storm hitting, and the snow total projections have gone up.

I'm gonna go with 6-10 inches for Montgomery County, as we seem to be dead in the middle of the heaviest bands of snow that will be coming through.

Some of you may have heard the term "Thunder Snow" in the last 24 hours, and that seems to be very probable with this storm. Thats right, we may hear/see plenty of thunder and lightning when the heaviest bands come through.

I am sticking with my 90% chance of schools being closed tomorrow, and will add a 50% chance of a delay for Friday (mainly due to the large amounts of snow that will accumulate on the sidewalks).

Lets keep our fingers crossed!

Wednesday 1/26, Thursday 1/27

It looks like 4-8 inches for us throughout the day ending around midnight tonight. Good chance those two days off I talked about last weekend will happen. Expect schools to be closed on Thursday barring a major change in the storms pattern.

Schools Closed (Thursday): 90%

Winter Storm Watch...Wednesday 1/26 (Midnight Update)

It looks like the big storm I was talking about is finally coming. We are still under a Winter Storm Watch, but that could change to a Warning by the end of the night.

I have seen projected totals ranging from 2 to 10 inches for our area. If the track of this storm slides a little to the east, we can see anywhere between 8-12 inches of snow. If it slides to the west, we would see 2-4, but the way it is looking now, im gonna say 4-6 inches for our area.

The storm will start late Wednesday morning into the afternoon. It will go throughout the day Wednesday, and into the early morning hours of Thursday.

I don't think it will start early enough to close schools, but it may start early enough for an early release. Remember...the county doesn't really like to close schools early, so it'll have to really be coming down in order for schools to close.

Wednesday
Two hour delay: 5%
Schools Closed: 75%
Early Release: 40%

Thursday
Two Hour Delay: 75%
Schools Closed: 90%

Wednesday, January 26th Storm UPDATE (Tuesday 3:15pm)

There is a Winter Storm Watch in effect for Montgomery County. Along with this watch comes a possibility of 5+ inches of snow. I feel like that may be the case a little north and west of Montgomery County. The northern part of our county should receive between 2-4 inches, while the lower half should get between 1-3 inches.

Remember, things can still change...the storm is still about 12-18 hours away. If it starts as snow, there is a chance schools will be closed on Wednesday. If it starts at rain, schools will most likely remain open throughout the day (the county does not like closing schools early unless absolutely necessary).

After school activities will most likely be cancelled tomorrow, and I think that there will at least be a delay on Thursday.

Look for an update around 8pm tonight with the first percentages for tomorrow (Wednesday 1/26) posted.

Wednesday, January 26th Storm UPDATE (Monday night)

I hate to be the bearer of bad news (especially since I may have gotten everyones hopes up a couple days ago), but it looks like most of the accumulation coming with Wednesdays storm will fall as rain. There are still conflicting reports, and many different scenarios that can occur, but most of them show our area being left with little to no winter accumulation.

We will keep a close eye on this storm, as one slight change can impact the forecast greatly. As of now, the warm air that will move in tomorrow (almost 50 degrees!) will ruin the chances of significant winter weather for our area.

Storm Wednesday, January 26th

The possible big storm I reported on a couple days ago never materialized. Things seem to have been pushed back a day or so, and warm air will move into the area just before the snow arrives.

This means we will probably have rain throughout the morning commute and into the afternoon on Wednesday, with a possible change over to wet snow later on tin the day. The snow may continue into early Thursday, but the ground will not be cold enough to allow the snow to stick.

I do not expect any delays or cancellations from this storm, but you never know, so stay tuned...

BIG storm coming? (Monday, January 24th into Tuesday, January 25th)

It's still very early, and none of the meteorologists in the area are willing to commit to anything, but the storm that will be moving into the area on Monday night could be a big one.

The beauty of this storm, is that it will be arriving late Monday into Tuesday...possibly extending a three day weekend into four (or more).

Right now, I am predicting 4-8 inches of snow, but this is a very early prediction. The snow will continue to fall through the day on Tuesday, and possibly into Wednesday morning. This could mean two extra days off.


Any slight change of direction for this storm and the snow totals can change drastically. If it moves west a bit while traveling up the coast, we can see double the amount I predicted. If it moves towards the east, we may not get much more than a couple flurries.


Keep your fingers crossed...this may be our best chance at a couple days off.

Thursday, January 20th into Friday, January 21st 8:30pm UPDATE

Winter Weather Advisories have been issued to the north, but most reports are now saying that we will be getting little to no precipitation with this storm.

Our next chance at winter weather will be early next week. Let's hope that storm system can give us a couple days off.

2 Hour Delay: 10%
Schools Closed: 1%

Thursday, January 20th into Friday, January 21st

It looks like initial reports of up to 3 inches of snow were incorrect. Most weather services are predicting about an inch of snow for our area. With temperatures as cold as they will be (in the 20's), this means the snow will be very fluffy and dry. This is not a good thing for those looking for delays or cancellations.

Because it is exam week, and we have already missed a day of school this week, I think it will take more than usual to delay or close schools.

2 Hour Delay: 30%
Schools Closed: 5%

Wednesday, January 19th

It looks like most major roadways are just fine, but there is plenty of traffic (most likely due to some slick spots). Most of the ice has melted, but temperatures will drop below freezing tonight. This could result in some re-freezing, but I doubt it will be enough to delay school openings.

If it wasn't for the exam schedules, I would give a slightly higher percentage...

2 Hour Delay: 15%

Schools Closed: 1%

Wintry Mix for Monday, January 17th/Tuesday, January 18th 11pm UPDATE

The Winter Weather Advisory has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for Montgomery County. Spots like Gaithersburg, Germantown, and Damascus may get up to 3/10ths of an inch of ice.
This means there may be big problems with the roads throughout the day. Definitely an increase in the percentages.

Two Hour Delay: 95%
Schools Closed: 45%

Wintry Mix for Monday, January 17th/Tuesday, January 18th 10pm UPDATE

Latest reports are saying there may not be a change over to rain at all during this storm. This could mean slicker roads, and definite problems for the morning commute (maybe even the afternoon?).
I think it is a virtual certainty that there will be a delay for MCPS tomorrow, with the chances of schools being closed being raised just a little.
The big issue is that this is exam week for the secondary schools in the county. Closing schools could cause problems with the exam schedule, so the county is much less likely to cancel school.

2 Hour Delay: 90%
Schools Closed: 20%

Wintry Mix for Monday, January 17th/Tuesday, January 18th 7pm UPDATE

Some snow has begun to fall in the region, and a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from 10pm tonight until 9am tomorrow morning. If the snow hasn't started where you're at, it should within the next hour or two.
There may be about an inch of snow accumulation before the switch to freezing rain between midnight and 3am tonight. That's when it gets bad. The freezing rain should fall until late morning, before switching to rain.
The roads will be messy tomorrow, and I don't think the county will take the chance of letting the kids go to school on time.

2 Hour Delay: 75%
Schools Closed: 10%

Wintry Mix for Monday, January 17th/Tuesday, January 18th

A wintry mix is headed towards Montgomery County. All precipitation will start off as snow at 6pm today, and there will be an inch or two on the ground by midnight. At that time, there will be a switch over to sleet and freezing rain. This will create that ever-so-dangerous slush that causes lots of problems on the road.

By about 7 or  8am, everything should turn to rain, which will eventually melt the slush away. If things go the way they are being predicted to go, there will most definitely be a two-hour delay tomorrow.

Montgomery County is not the type of county that will close when rain is predicted for the rest of the day, so I would not count on extending this 3 day weekend for more than 2 hours.

2 Hour Delay: 60%
Schools Closed: 10%

January 11th storm 11pm UPDATE

Things have died down in the middle/northern part of the county, but there seems to be a couple inches on the ground and the roads are slick.

Reports i've received from around the county are all telling me that the roads are "bad."

PG County has just announced a 2-hour delay for tomorrow. Though the conditions in the counties were fairly similar, there was slightly more accumulation in Montgomery County. MCPS does not, however, like to close when PG has a 2 hour delay. Chances for closing way down.

2 hour delay: 90%
Closing: 20%

January 11th Storm

Well it looks like the storm isn't as strong as expected, but it is definitely messy. Conditions are supposed to remain the same, if not get worse, until about midnight tonight.

Temperatures will remain below freezing tonight, which means the roads will still be a bit dangerous in the morning.

I am giving a 90% chance of a 2 hour delay, and a 35% chance of school closing for Wednesday, January 12th.

Stay Tuned.